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THURSDAY,  OCTOBER 30,  2008

A FAREWELL TO BAMS

Posted at 8:26 p.m. ET

From reader Ken Braithwaite:  Another feminist Democrat defects to McCain.  This time it's Wendy Button, former speechwriter for John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  She explains why she's doing it:

Since I started writing speeches more than ten years ago, I have always believed in the Democratic Party. Not anymore. Not after the election of 2008. This transformation has been swift and complete and since I’m a woman writing in the election of 2008, “very emotional.”

Pretty strong stuff.  This doesn't sound like a one-time thing.

This drift started on a personal level with the fall of former Senator John Edwards. It got stronger during the Democratic National Convention when I counted the substantive mentions of poverty on one hand and a whole bunch of bad canned partisan lines against Senator John McCain. Some faith was lifted after Senator Hillary Clinton’s grace during a difficult hour. But that faith was dashed when I saw that someone had raided the Caligula set and planted the old columns at Invesco Field.

The final straw came the other week when Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher (a.k.a Joe the Plumber) asked a question about higher taxes for small businesses. Instead of celebrating his aspirations, they were mocked. He wasn’t “a real plumber,” and “They’re fighting for Joe the Hedge-Fund manager,” and the patronizing, “I’ve got nothing but love for Joe the Plumber.”

And...

The party I believed in wouldn’t look down on working people under any circumstance. And Joe the Plumber is right. This is the absolutely worst time to raise taxes on anyone: the rich, the middle class, the poor, small businesses and corporations.

Our economy is in the tank for many complicated reasons, especially because people don’t have enough money. So let them keep it. Let businesses keep it so they can create jobs and stay here and weather this storm. And yet, the Democratic ideology remains the same. Our approach to problems—big government solutions paid for by taxing the rich and big and smaller companies—is just as tired and out of date as trickle down economics. How about a novel approach that simply finds a sane way to stop the bleeding?

I wish she were our speechwriter.

That’s not exactly the philosophy of a Democrat. Not only has this party belittled working people in this campaign from Joe the Plumber to the bitter comments, it has also been part of tearing down two female candidates. At first, certain Democrats and the press called Senator Clinton “dishonest.” They went after her cleavage. They said her experience as First Lady consisted of having tea parties...

...But here we are about a week out and it’s déjà vu all over again. Really, front-page news is how the Republican National Committee paid for Governor Sarah Palin’s wardrobe? Where’s the op-ed about how Obama tucks in his shirt when he plays basketball or how Senator Biden buttons the top button on his golf shirt?

Why haven't those who are "handling" Governor Palin made this case? 

Here we are discussing Governor Palin’s clothes—oh wait, now we’re on to the make-up—not what either man is going to do to save our economy. This isn’t an accident. It is part of a manufactured narrative that she is stupid.

And the sickest part of it is that the media - including women in the media - have joyously joined in. 

Governor Palin and I don’t agree on a lot of things, mostly social issues. But I have grown to appreciate the Governor. I was one of those initial skeptics and would laugh at the pictures. Not anymore. When someone takes on a corrupt political machine and a sitting governor, that is not done by someone with a low I.Q. or a moral core made of tissue paper. When someone fights her way to get scholarships and work her way through college even in a jagged line, that shows determination and humility you can’t learn from reading Reinhold Niebuhr. When a mother brings her son with special needs onto the national stage with love, honesty, and pride, that gives hope to families like mine as my older brother lives with a mental disability. And when someone can sit on a stage during the Sarah Palin rap on Saturday Night Live, put her hands in the air and watch someone in a moose costume get shot—that’s a sign of both humor and humanity.

That is the kind of from-the-gut writing the McCain campaign has needed.  Can you imagine a speech like that?  Republicans must remember that the last Republican president who genuinely connected with the American people was called "the great communicator."  It wasn't for nothing.

I was dead wrong about the surge and thought it would be a disaster. Senator John McCain led when many of us were ready to quit. Yet we march on as if nothing has changed, wedded to an old plan, and that too is a long way from the Democratic Party.

I can no longer justify what this party has done and can’t dismiss the treatment of women and working people as just part of the new kind of politics. It’s wrong and someone has to say that.

And you are saying it, Ms. Button.  I wish an army of people like you had been mobilized a bit earlier.

When people say how excited they are about this election, I can now say, “Maybe for you. But I lost my home.”

Many of us who started as Democrats began feeling that way years ago.

October 30, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 7:25 P.M. ET:  My sharp-eyed friend, Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi, alerts us to this, from Ken Timmerman at NewsMax:  A Newsmax investigation of Obama/Biden campaign contributors, undertaken in conjunction with a private investigative firm headed by a former CIA operations officer, has identified 118 donors who appear to lack U.S. citizenship.  Some of these “red flag” donors work for foreign governments; others have made public statements declaring that they are citizens of Cameroun, Nigeria, Pakistan, Canada, and other countries.

COMMENT:  The mainstream media isn't interested.  And sadly, the American people don't seem to care, probably because of the attitude of the media.  This is the way a system of law breaks down.

UPDATE AT 7:02 P.M. ET:  The Dow closed up 190.  Theoretically, good market closings should help McCain, as they, again theoretically, take attention away from bad economic news.  But we haven't seen that effect.

UPDATE AT 6:47 P.M. ET:  The IBD/TIPP poll, just out, has Obama up four, an increase of one since yesterday.  The Real Clear Politics average of polls, however, has Obama up 5.9 percent.  Obama's margin ranges from a low of three in the Fox and Battleground polls, and a high of 11 in the CBS News/NY Times poll. 

COMMENT:  Again, the polls diverge.  Some have Obama gaining slightly.  Others have McCain gaining a bit.  But there is, in general, a stability.  Of the ten polls currently posted at Real Clear Politics, six have him at 50 percent or over, which generally means election.  If, by election day, those numbers decline into the 40s, Obama will be in trouble.  But we don't see that happening yet. 

NOTE AT 1:26 P.M. ET:  Reader Bob Engler sends this, showing the importance of optimism: 

Rove writes: Only one time in the past 14 presidential elections has a candidate won the popular vote and the Electoral College after trailing in the Gallup Poll the week before the election: Ronald Reagan in 1980.
 
And you comment: Well, there was the Reagan exception. We can hope, can't we?
 
To which I add: The first time the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series was in 1980. The only time since then that they’ve won the WS was last night, so (and I say this with as much certainty as any of the public-opinion pollsters) Senator McCain is positioned right where he needs to be to save the country from a rapid descent into socialism.

I go along with Mr. Engler.
 

BULLETIN AT 1:19 P.M. ET:  Well, here's something to produce a cautious smile.  Fox News reports Obama up only three, 47-44.  They had him up nine last week.  As we said earlier, mcCain's chances depend on which poll you believe.  We hope this one has it right. 

UPDATE AT 1:14 P.M. ET:  Gallup has just reported its daily tracker.  Using its traditional model, Gallup has Obama up five, 50-45, a gain of two since yesterday.  Using its "expanded" model, Gallup has Obama up seven, 51-44, unchanged for three days.

COMMENT:  This isn't encouraging.  Both Obama numbers in the Gallup survey reach 50 percent, the magic figure.  Also, of four polls reporting today, three show gains for Obama of two points.  Only one, Hotline, shows a loss, and it's only a point.  Is the race closing?  It doesn't appear so.  But there are five more days of campaigning left.  Do not give up!  There could be a last-minute shift of undecideds toward McCain, and please remember that Obama has regularly failed to deliver on election day what he polls.

UPDATE AT 1:05 P.M. ET:  Dow is up 34.

UPDATE AT 12:56 P.M. ET:  New trackers just out:  Hotline has Obama up six, 48-42, a loss of one.  Battleground has him up three, 49-46, same as yesterday. The Real Clear Politics average of polls is at 6.3.

COMMENT:  McCain's chances depend on which poll you believe.  Both Zogby and Rasmussen, reported earlier, have Obama at more than 50 percent, which is clear winning territory.  But note that Battleground and Hotline have him at under 50, meaning half the country is rejecting him.  Chance for a McCain upset there, if undecideds flood McCain's way.

UPDATE AT 9:44 A.M. ET:  The Dow is up 220 at the opening.

UPDATE AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  Rusmussen has Obama with a five-point lead, 51-46, a gain of two from yesterday.  Both Zogby and Rasmussen have now reported gains for Obama. 

UPDATE AT 7:25 A.M. ET:  Dick Morris, in a New York Post piece today, goes out on a limb and claims the race has already tightened to a nailbiter level.

McCain has closed to a point where the race will likely be very, very close - and we'll have to stay up very, very late on Election Night.

All right, we'll hold Dick to that.  

ROVE ON POLLS

Posted at 7:14 a.m. ET

Karl Rove, with his vast knowledge of politics, cautions us on interpreting the polls, while conceding that McCain is in a tough place.

Some polls are sponsored by reputable news organizations, others by publicity-eager universities or polling firms on the make. None have the scientific precision we imagine.

But they sure affect our ability to have a nice day.

Polls can reveal underlying or emerging trends and help campaigns decide where to focus. The danger is that commentators use them to declare a race over before the votes are in. This can demoralize the underdog's supporters, depressing turnout. I know that from experience.

The experience:

On election night in 2000 Al Hunt -- then a columnist for this newspaper and a commentator on CNN -- was the first TV talking head to erroneously declare that Florida's polls had closed, when those in the Panhandle were open for another hour. Shortly before 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, Judy Woodruff said: "A big call to make. CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column."

Mr. Hunt and Ms. Woodruff were not only wrong. What they did was harmful. We know, for example, that turnout in 2000 compared to 1996 improved more in states whose polls had closed by the time Ms. Woodruff all but declared the contest over. The data suggests that as many as 500,000 people in the Midwest and West didn't bother to vote after the networks indicated Florida cinched the race for Mr. Gore.

Woodruff, in particular, is a bitter liberal partisan, whose behavior on the air has sometimes been problematical.

Polls have proliferated this year in part because it is much easier for journalists to devote the limited space in their papers or on TV to the horse-race aspect of the election rather than its substance. And I admit, I've aided and abetted this process.

In the campaign's final week, though, the candidates can offer little new substance, so attention turns to the political landscape, and there's no question Mr. McCain is in a difficult place.

The last national poll that showed Mr. McCain ahead came out Sept. 25 and the 232 polls since then have all shown Mr. Obama leading. Only one time in the past 14 presidential elections has a candidate won the popular vote and the Electoral College after trailing in the Gallup Poll the week before the election: Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Well, there was the Reagan exception.  We can hope, can't we?  And remember the one before those 14 elections - Harry Truman in 1948.  He was all but written off by the "experts."

But the question that matters is the margin. If Mr. McCain is down by 3%, his task is doable, if difficult. If he's down by 9%, his task is essentially impossible. In truth, however, no one knows for sure what kind of polling deficit is insurmountable or even which poll is correct. All of us should act with the proper understanding that nothing is yet decided.

Yup.  Correct.

October 30, 2008.      Permalink          

DEFINE A REPUBLICAN

Posted at 7:03 a.m. ET

Mr. Obama announces his intentions regarding his cabinet:

SUNRISE, Florida (Reuters) - U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama said on Wednesday he would include Republicans in his Cabinet if he wins the election.

That's what I was afraid of.  It may sound "bipartisan" to say you want Republicans in your cabinet, but how do you define Republican?  It really depends on the issue.  My fear is that Obama, if elected, will name someone like Chuck Hagel to a key foreign-policy post.   In terms of his views, that's like naming George McGovern.

"I'm not going to get into details," Obama said, but he added that national security policy, in particular, should be nonpartisan.

Other people mentioned as possible defense secretary picks in an Obama administration include former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig and Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican senator from Nebraska.

Whoops.  There's the golden name.  Hagel.  Another name floated is Richard Lugar of Indiana.  Lugar, like Hagel is no Republican on foreign policy.  He's one of the Senate's great marshmallows, not someone you send into battle against foreign enemies.

Be careful of "bipartisanship."  Some of the bi's were never Republican partisans.

Some analysts have speculated that during the transition period between November 4 and January 20, when a successor to President George W. Bush will take office, the new president-elect would move quickly to fill key jobs such as Treasury Secretary, Defense Secretary and Secretary of State. 

That will be the first test of the media in covering an Obama presidency.  If Obama names RINOs (Republicans in Name Only), will the media call him on it, or praise his willingness to "cross the aisle" to get talent. 

Also, be wary of the pick for attorney general.  He or she will be a key figure in deciding whether to continue investigations already begun into ACORN, and whether to resist leftist demands to conduct endless probes into the Bush administration.

Let's hope there's an upset next Tuesday, and we don't have to worry about this.

October 30, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 6 :34 A.M. ET:   Some discouragement.  Zogby has Obama up seven this morning, a gain of three points in two days.  The trend, in Zogby's estimation, is going against McCain, not for him.

COMMENT:  It's Zogby.  His results have been all over the place.  We'll wait for the other trackers to publish later today.

WEDNESDAY,  OCTOBER 29,  2008

NOTE AT 11:14 P.M. ET:  Reader Jim Meyer alerts us to a superb piece by Katherine Ernst in the equally superb City Journal.  It's about Barack Obama's considerable ego, and contains this gem:

Here’s Obama in his own words to the Chicago Sun-Times on November 4, 2004: “I was elected yesterday. . . . I have never set foot in the U.S. Senate. I’ve never worked in Washington. And the notion that somehow I’m immediately going to start running for higher office just doesn’t make sense. So look, I can unequivocally say I will not be running for national office in four years, and my entire focus is making sure that I’m the best possible senator on behalf of the people of Illinois. . . . I am not running for president in 2008.”

More change we can believe in.  The whole article is well worth reading.

UPDATE AT 9:44 P.M. ET:  From the Las Vegas Review-Journal:   Analysts have predicted that new voters, young voters and Hispanic voters will turn out in record numbers in this election. But as Nevadans continue to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at least in the early going.  While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn't vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters.

COMMENT:  Interesting, interesting.  If that trend continues - and it may not - the projections of Obama's vote may be too high.  As Sinatra might have put it, leave us we should pray.

UPDATE AT 6:42 P.M. ET:  The IBD/TIPP poll, possibly significant because it was the most accurate in 2004, has Obama up three, the same as it's been for six days.  And here's the key point:  Obama's number is at 46.9 percent.  As noted here before, polling experts now zero in on the front runner's number.  If it's under 50 percent, he might be in trouble.  This is way under 50 percent.

COMMENT:  Historically, Obama is a poor closer.  He barely made it over the finish line in his race against Hillary Clinton.  And he generally does not deliver votes that match his polling.  He overpolled by about seven percent in the primaries.  That is not a guarantee of future results, of course, but it's grounds for optimism.  McCain can pull this out.  Get your friends and family to vote!

CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN.  RIGHT.

Posted at 6:13 p.m. ET

Mike Allen, at The Politico, lets us in on the kind of change we can expect in politics if The One makes it over the finish line next week.  I wonder how many young, idealistic kids ringing doorbells for "O" tonight are aware of this:

Aides to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) scheduled pricey luncheons, roundtables, readings, VIP receptions and policy dinners with campaign officials and advisers, offering donors a taste of his potential administration.

Supporters could eat dinner in Los Angeles with Warren Buffett, an Obama adviser and one of history’s shrewdest investors, for $28,500, the federal limit for donations by an individual to a national party committee.

Or they could attend a “VIP reception” with the sage of Omaha for $10,000, or an “economic roundtable” for just $1,000.

The Obama campaign declined to comment on the schedule.

Of course they declined.  They figure, only one reporter asked about this, and we can stiff him without getting the press upset.  When has the press ever been upset with Obama?

Much has been made of Obama’s canny mining of small-dollar donors, with constant e-mails asking for donations of as little as $5. The average donation in September was $86. Two-thirds of the $150 million was raised via the Web.

But his campaign also has an elaborate machine for courting big check-writers. Obama kept the checks flowing this month with a gold-plated schedule of headliners who would have new prominence in a Democratic Washington.

A reception, policy discussion and lunch was offered in Newark, N.J., with David Cutler, Obama for America’s senior health care adviser, for $500 for a guest or $2,300 for a VIP.

Guess life and death issues don't bring as much as Buffett.

—Luncheon in New York with Dennis Ross, Special Middle East Coordinator under President Clinton — $10,000, $5,000, $2,500 or $1,000.

—Reception in Belmont, Mass., with Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick — $2,500, $1,000, $500 or $250.

—Reception in New York with Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.), Obama’s running mate —- per couple $28,500, $14,250, $5,000 or $1,000.

—Reception in Chicago with Michelle Obama — $28,500, $10,000 or $2,500.

Now we're talking.  No cheapskates here.

Yup, it's a new day in American politics.  Brought to you by the Daley machine in Chicago. 

I know we're all looking forward to being uplifted by this change we can believe in.

Yuch.

October 29, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 2:20 P.M. ET:   The Dow is up 92.

UPDATE AT 1:54 P.M. ET:   Three new trackers have published.  Battleground has Obama up three, 49-46, same as yesterday.  Hotline has him up seven, 49-42, a loss of one for Obama since yesterday.  Gallup's traditional measure has Obama up three, 49-46, a gain of one for Obama since yesterday.  Gallup's expanded measure, taking into account possible new voters, has him up seven, 51-44, same as yesterday.

COMMENT:  Please note that only in the Gallup expanded measure does Obama, at 51, break 50 percent.  Earlier, only the Rasmussen report had Gallup at exactly 50, whereas Zogby had him at 49.  McCain is still a long shot, but, based on the pattern of the last three or four days, the race seems to be tightening.  The key figure is Obama's percentage.  If he cannot reach at least fifty percent, we could conceivably have an upset on Tuesday. 

There'll be a lot of political discussion in American households this weekend.  These are the days when the McCain campaign must be at its best.  This race is not over.

UPDATE AT 1:37 P.M. ET:  The Dow is up 113.

UPDATE AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen normally publishes its daily tracker at 9:30 a.m. ET, but Drudge apparently got an advance copy.  It shows Obama up only three points, a decline of two since yesterday.

COMMENT:  Rasmussen's results don't swing as wildly as some polls.  When you see a sudden change like this it may - I stress may - have some meaning.  We'll check it against other polls due out later today.

MORRIS

Posted at 8:12 a.m. ET

Dick Morris has been astute during this election year, identifying early the problems in John McCain's campaign.  How does he read the final week, leading to the election?  He believes the undecided vote is key, and can break McCain's way:

If current survey trends continue, Obama will finish with less than 50 percent in the polls. Even discounting the Nader vote (some people never learn), the undecided voters could tip the race either way. How will they break?

Since there is no incumbent, they cannot automatically be assigned to the challenger; and since turnout is likely to be huge, the current undecided voters will probably make their way to the polls and cast their ballots.

But for whom?

And...

As Obama has oscillated, moving somewhat above or somewhat below 50 percent in all the October polls, his election likely hangs in the balance. If he falls short of 50 percent in these circumstances, a majority of the voters can be said to have rejected him. Likely a disproportionate number of the undecideds will vote for McCain.

But don't write Obama off. His candidacy strikes such enthusiasm among young and minority voters that there is still a chance that a massive turnout will deliver the race to the Democrats...

...The effect of this increased vote is hard to calculate, but it may be enough to offset the undecideds who will vote for McCain.

But...

But the basic point, one week before Election Day, is that even if Obama clings to a four- or five-point lead over McCain in the polling, the election is not over. The question is not so much how large his lead is over the Republican, but whether or not he is topping 50 percent. As long as the polling leaves him below that mark, he is vulnerable and could well lose.

John Fund, in a talk I heard last night, also made the point that Obama has never exceeded, in the primaries, his last poll numbers.  So if his final poll numbers next Monday have him below 50 percent, he could be in trouble.

Clearly, in recent weeks, McCain has been able to cast Obama as a leftist. He has made the issue of income redistribution central to the campaign. With the aid of Joe the Plumber and the discovery of Obama's Chicago PBS interview, in which he lamented the absence of redistribution of wealth, McCain has made the proposition seem central to Obama's ideology.

Finally...

The audacity of Obama's injection of a social democratic concept borrowed from Western Europe into American politics is stunning. And almost half the voters seem to be buying it.

Maybe not.

October 29, 2008.      Permalink          

THE POLLS

Posted at 7:06 a.m. ET

All the polls point to an Obama victory.  But could the polls be wrong?  It is the question a number of analysts are asking.  It is, after all, such an unusual political year, with the first African-American presidential nominee of a major party, with predictions that normally underrepresented groups will vote in larger numbers, with stories of large-scale voter-registration fraud, and with allegations of massive press bias.  The Washington Post reports:

Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.

"We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable," Sarah Simmons, director of strategy for the McCain campaign, said yesterday.

Typical campaign spin?

Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view...

...Still, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points.

An expert view:

"I have been wondering for weeks" whether the polls are accurately gauging the state of the race, said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota. Borrowing from lingo popularized by former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Schier asked what are the "unknown unknowns" about polling this year: For instance, is the sizable cohort of people who don't respond to pollsters more Republican-leaning this year, perhaps because they don't want to admit to a pollster that they are not supporting the "voguish" Obama?

If so, that could mean the polls are routinely understating McCain's support. "I have no evidence that this is happening," Schier said, but he added: "I'm still thinking there's a 25 percent chance that this is a squeaker race and McCain pulls it out."

The opposing view:

"It is very unlikely that we are going to get surprised by a last-minute movement," said John R. Petrocik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Missouri. "Obama has been running six to eight points ahead for the better part of two weeks, and it's hard to imagine that turning around."

The McCain campaign is insistent, but its position appears based on the notion that turnout this year will resemble turnout in 2004.

To buttress its point of view, the McCain team points to results reported yesterday by the Gallup organization, whose daily tracking poll showed Obama up 49 percent to 47 percent using Gallup's traditional turnout model, which assumes that turnout will follow the patterns of past elections. Obama has a larger lead, seven points, using a model that allows a higher presence of first-time voters.

The McCain campaign says that expected increases in African-American and new voters will be offset by increases in Republican voters. 

Who is right?  We'll know next Wednesday morning.  Or, maybe we won't.  John Fund, of The Wall Street Journal, said last night that, if the race is close, the recounts and accusations of voter fraud could dwarf anything seen in past elections.  The outcome might not be known for days.

October 29, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 6:08 A.M. ET:  Zogby has Obama up five this morning, 49-44, a gain of one since yeserday.

COMMENT:  We note that Obama is still under 50 percent.  With all the talk of landslide, he still hasn't captured half the vote in a number of polls.

"What you see is news.  What you know is background.  What you feel is opinion."
    - Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
      of The New York Times.

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